Scientists are currently split over the question of whether the record temperatures in 2024 on land and at sea are in line with predicted global heating patterns or if they represent a concerning acceleration of climate breakdown.
Latest data shows that heat above the oceans remains persistently high, despite a weakening of El Niño, which has been one of the major drivers of record global temperatures over the past year.
Scientists are divided about the extraordinary temperatures of marine air. Some stress that current trends are within climate model projections of how the world will warm as a result of human burning of fossil fuels and forests. Others are perplexed and worried by the speed of change because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming.
Recall that earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, had peaked and there was an 80% chance of it fading completely between April and June, although its knock-on effects would continue.
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The WMO secretary general, Celeste Saulo, said El Niño contributed to making 2023 easily the warmest year on record, although the main culprit was emissions from fossil fuels.
When it came to oceans, she said, the picture was murkier and more disturbing: “The January 2024 sea surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and can not be explained by El Niño alone.”
Sea surface temperatures in February were also hotter than any month in history, breaking the record set last August, according to Europe’s Copernicus satellite monitoring programme.
Worldwide, the heat above the land and sea was remarkable. Between 8 and 11 February, global temperatures were more than 2C above the 1850-1900 average. Over the month as a whole, Europe experienced heat that was 3.3C above that benchmark.
Story was adapted from the Guardian.
