A new study has found that current climate measures, including initiatives like the Powering Past Coal Alliance, will not result in a global coal departure.
According to the study, to avoid diverting the extra coal supply into domestic steel manufacturing, countries that are phasing out coal in the electrical sector must broaden their regulatory approach.
Researchers who undertook the study said that China has a chance to dominate the market for renewable energy technologies if it starts to phase out coal immediately. Otherwise, it can dangerously delay the global breakthrough in renewable energy.
Stephen Bi from the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Potsdam University, lead author of the study published in Nature Climate Change, said, “It’s really a make-or-break moment,” adding that “Our computer simulation of climate economics and policy making indicates that current policies lead the world to less than a 5 per cent likelihood of phasing out coal by mid-century. This would leave minimal chances of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and limiting disastrous climate risks.”
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According to Bi, the most shocking result was that even though most countries decide to stop burning coal for electricity during the simulation, this has almost zero impact on total future coal use. He added that he and his colleagues dug deeper into the result to identify what policymakers could do to actually achieve the coal exit.
The scientists examined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which was introduced at the COP23 global climate summit in 2017, to know if these countries’ efforts to reduce coal use would make it easier or harder for other countries to follow suit.
“The greatest risk to the coal exit movement may actually come from free-riding sectors in coalition members. Unregulated industries can take advantage of falling coal prices at home and use more coal than they otherwise would have,” said co-author Nico Bauer, also from PIK.
The researchers concluded that additional strong policies are needed to avoid this effect.
Story was adapted from EnviroNews.
