A new study has found that limiting global warming to 2C can prevent over 80 per cent of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of the century.
Published in The Lancet Planetary Health on Monday, the study says that the Middle East and North Africa region, together referred to as the MENA, is one of the most climate-vulnerable areas in the world, where maximum temperatures have been predicted to rise to nearly 50C by the end of the century.
Under high-emissions scenarios, the annual heat-related deaths in MENA could increase to 123 people per 100,000 by the period between 2081 and 2100, the study also found.
This number is about 60 times higher than current figures and higher than predictions under similar scenarios worldwide. However, if global warming is limited to 2C that was the final goal agreed to by countries in the Paris Agreement in 2015, over 80 per cent of these deaths could be avoided.
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The world has already warmed by 1.2C as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and is soon expected to breach the mark of 1.5C, the Paris Agreement’s more ideal target of limiting warming.
Variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios are what the study’s current and future trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region were modelled upon.
Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in MENA region under the high-emissions scenario, at 423 deaths per 100,000, with other countries such as Palestine, Iraq, and Israel also predicted to have high rates, at 186, 169, and 163 per 100,000, respectively.
Traditional heat-adaption solutions such as air-conditioning will not be enough, and stronger mitigation and adaptation policies need to be agreed upon at the upcoming United Nations climate conference, Cop28, in Dubai, the authors warned.
Reliance on air-conditioning is already relatively high in countries where rates of heat-related mortality are higher than the regional average, such as in Israel and Cyprus.
“Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat,” says Shakoor Hajat, lead author and professor of global environmental health at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, adding that strengthening health systems and an improved coordination between MENA countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change in the region.
The authors also suggest that demographic policies and healthy ageing will be vital to successfully adapt to a changing climate as population growth in the MENA is a substantial driver of predicted heat-related deaths.
Story was adapted from the Independent.
