Experts have warned that Australia would emit far more climate pollution – more than 1.7bn extra tonnes of carbon dioxide – between now and 2050 under the Coalition’s nuclear-focused plan than under Labor’s renewable energy dominated policy.
Recall that last week, the opposition released modelling of its “coal-to-nuclear” plan that would slow the rollout of renewable energy and batteries and instead rely on more fossil fuel generation until a nuclear industry could be developed, mostly after 2040.
Experts have questioned whether that would be possible while maintaining a reliable grid, given the country’s ageing coal plants have suffered regular planned and unplanned outages. Using the modelling report relied on by the Coalition – which was formulated by the consultancy Frontier Economics – experts have also calculated the emissions that would result from extending the life of coal plants beyond what is expected under Labor.
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Under a “step change” scenario in transforming the source of electricity, which is roughly in line with Labor’s plan to have 82% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030, it is forecast about 90% of the country’s remaining coal-fired capacity would shut by 2035. The Coalition assumes about a third of existing coal capacity would shut by that date.
Dylan McConnell, an energy systems expert at the University of New South Wales, said this would lead to more than 1bn tonnes of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere by 2051 under the Coalition’s preferred path. A separate analysis by economist Steven Hamilton, published in the Australian Financial Review, produced a similar result.
They found the nuclear plan would result in cumulative emissions from the electricity grid of more than 1.6bn tonnes between 2025 and 2051. Labor’s policy – moving more rapidly to running on renewable energy supported by batteries, pumped hydro, transmission lines and “fast start” gas plants – would be expected to result in a little more than 600m tonnes over that time.
Story was adapted from the Guardian.
