A new study undertaken across 135 countries has estimated that climate change could see as much as 4% of global annual economic output lost by 2050.
The report published by rating firm S&P Global, which gives countries credit scores based on the health of their economies, showed that poorer parts of the world will be hit disproportionately hard as a result.
Recall that a study last year by a group of UK universities looking at a more extreme rise in global temperatures predicted that over 60 countries could see their ratings cut because of global warming by 2030.
S&P Global’s report also looked at the likely impact of rising sea levels and more regular heatwaves, droughts and storms.
The report showed that in a baseline scenario where governments largely shy away from major new climate change policies – known as ‘RCP 4.5’ by scientists – lower- and lower-middle-income countries are likely to see 3.6 times greater gross domestic product losses on average than richer ones.
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It found that Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka’s exposure to wildfires, floods, major storms and water shortages means South Asia has 10%-18% of GDP risk, roughly treble that of North America and 10 times more than the least-affected region, Europe.
The report further showed that Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa regions all face sizable losses too, adding that East Asia and Pacific countries face similar levels of exposure as Sub-Saharan Africa, but mainly because of storms and floods rather than heatwaves and drought.
In his reaction, S&P’s top government credit analyst, Roberto Sifon-Arevalo said “to different degrees, this is an issue for the world. One thing that really jumps out is the need for international support for many of these (poorer) parts of the world”.
He explained that countries around the equator or small islands tend to be more at risk, while economies more reliant on sectors such as agriculture are likely to be more affected than those with large services sectors.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been quoted as saying that on average, weather, climate, or water-related disaster has occurred somewhere in the world every day for the last 50 years, causing 115 daily deaths and over $202 million in daily losses.
Story was adapted from Reuters.
