Supply chain analysts have said that extreme weather events are expected to lead to volatile food prices throughout 2025, after cocoa and coffee prices more than doubled over the past year.
In an apparent confirmation of warnings that climate breakdown could lead to food shortages, research by the consultancy Inverto found that steep rises in the prices of a number of food commodities in the year to January that correlated with unexpected weather.
Several authorities declared 2024 the hottest year on record, a trend towards higher temperatures that seems to be continuing into 2025. Inverto said a long-term trend towards more extreme weather events would continue to hit regional crop yields, causing price spikes.
The highest price rises were for cocoa and coffee, up 163% and 103% respectively, due to a combination of higher than average rainfall and temperatures in producing regions, according to the research.
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Sunflower oil prices increased by 56% after drought caused poor crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine, which also continued to be affected by the Russian invasion. Other food commodities with sharp year-on-year price rises included orange juice and butter, both up by more than a third, and beef, up by just over a quarter.
“Food manufacturers and retailers should diversify their supply chains and sourcing strategies to reduce over-reliance on any one region affected by crop failures,” Katharina Erfort, of Inverto, said.
In December, the UK government said climate breakdown and related food price inflation was leading to a rise in the number of hungry and malnourished households.
Climate scientists said Inverto’s findings were in line with their expectations.
“Extreme weather events around the globe will continue to increase in severity and frequency in line with the ongoing rise in global temperature,” said Pete Falloon, a food security expert at the Met Office and University of Bristol.
“Crops are often vulnerable to extreme weather, and we can expect to witness ongoing shocks to global agricultural production and supply chains, which ultimately feed into food security concerns.”
Story was adapted from the Guardian.
