Scientists warn climate limit of 1.5C close to being broken

Scientists have warned that the year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit which was set by international governments is fast approaching.

The scientists who were led by the UK Met Office found that the probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, adding that as recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years.

While natural climate cycles can nudge global temperatures up or down, the Paris Agreement requires nations to hold the underlying rise, driven by human activities, to well below 2C, as well as pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C.

Recall that the world’s scientists warned in 2018 that 1.5C of global heating will bring severe impacts to billions of people.

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In their findings, the scientists noted that while this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021, adding that It is also close to certain – 93% – that by 2026 one year will be the hottest ever recorded, beating 2016 when a natural El Niño climate event supercharged temperatures.

“It is also near certain that the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than the past five years, as the climate crisis intensifies,” said Prof Petteri Taalas, head of the World Meteorological Organisation, which published the new report.

“The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet, “he added.

Speaking further, Taalas said that for as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise.

“Alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme,” he noted.

Story was adapted from the Guardian.