A study published in the journal Earth System Science Data on Thursday has shown that the world is rapidly running out of “carbon budget”, the amount of carbon dioxide that can be poured into the atmosphere if we are to stay within the vital threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Scientists have also warned that Greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, threatening to push the world into “unprecedented” levels of global heating. They say that only about 250bn tonnes of carbon dioxide can now be emitted, to avoid the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere that would raise temperatures by 1.5C. That is down from 500bn tonnes just a few years ago, and at current annual rates of greenhouse gas emissions, of about 54bn tonnes a year over the past decade, it would run out well before the end of this decade.
In his reaction, Prof Piers Forster, the director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, and lead author of the paper, said: “This is the critical decade for climate change. Decisions made now will have an impact on how much temperatures will rise and the degree and severity of impacts we will see as a result.”
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He stated that the rate of annual increase in emissions had slowed down, but far stronger action was needed. “We need to change policy and approaches in light of the latest evidence about the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side,”.
Governments are meeting in Bonn to prepare for a major UN summit on the climate, Cop28, this November in the United Arab Emirates. The conference is considered as one of the last opportunities for the world to get on track to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and stay within 1.5C.
Sultan Al Jaber, the president-designate of Cop28 is expected to arrive at Bonn on Thursday, under pressure to produce a plan for the talks that will achieve the “course correction” he has called for.
Al Jaber has retained his role as head of UAE’s national oil company, Adnoc, which is planning to increase its oil and gas production capacity, while also heading the talks.
Story was adapted from the Guardian.
