Scientists have warned that the world is almost certain to experience new record temperatures in the next five years, and temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
A research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) shows that the breaching of the crucial 1.5C threshold, which scientists have warned could have dire consequences, should be only temporary,
The UN however warned that it would represent a marked acceleration of human impacts on the global climate system, and send the world into “uncharted territory”.
Recall that countries had pledged, under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, to try to hold global temperatures to no higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, after scientific advice that heating beyond that level would unleash a cascade of increasingly catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts.
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In his reaction, Prof Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the WMO, said: “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”
Global average surface temperatures have never before breached the 1.5C threshold. The highest average in previous years was 1.28C above pre-industrial levels.
Published this Wednesday, the research, among other things, found that there was a 66% likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027.
According to the research, new record temperatures have been set in many areas around the world in the heatwaves of the past year, but those highs may only be the beginning, as climate breakdown and the impact of a developing El Niño weather system combine to create heatwaves across the globe.
El Niño is part of an oscillating weather system that develops in the Pacific. For the past three years, the world has been in the opposing phase, known as La Niña, which has had a dampening effect on temperature increases around the world.
The scientists found that as La Niña ends and a new El Niño develops, there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.
Story was adapted from the Guardian.
