A study published by Christian Aid has shown that about eight poorest countries, including Nigeria, face a grim economic future with a median GDP hit of -20% by 2050 and -64% by 2100 under current climate policies.
Titled the cost to Africa: drastic economic damage from climate change, the study highlighted the devastating economic impact climate change will inflict on the African continent, even if the world limits heating to 1.5C.
The report which was led by Marina Andrijevic, an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, showed that eight countries face GDP hits of more than 25% by 2050 and 75% by 2100 under current policies. These eight are Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti and Nigeria.
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According to the study, the economies of these nations are anticipated to remain stronger than they are today by the years 2050 and 2100. In comparison to a scenario in which climate change didn’t occur, this analysis shows the extent of the harm that climate change has done to their GDP.
African countries will have an average GDP decrease of -14% by 2050 and -34% by 2100, even if countries limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5C as called for in the Paris Agreement. This emphasizes the necessity for a strong loss and damage mechanism, even if nations manage to limit global warming to less than 1.5C.
The study showed that Sudan and Nigeria, which had one of the worst rainy seasons in living memory last year, are the nations with the greatest anticipated GDP loss. Sudan’s GDP will decrease by 32.4% by 2050 and 84.4% by 2100 under present climate policies compared to what it would be if there was no climate change. Sudan can anticipate a GDP hit of -22.4% by 2050 and -51.6% by 2100 even in a 1.5C scenario.
The report further showed that the top 20 worst-affected countries emit an average of 0.43 tonnes of CO2 per person. In comparison, the United States and Canada produce 14.2 tonnes per person, Australia 15.4 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 18.
Story was adapted from Daily Trust.