A new study released by an international team of weather scientists has shown that extreme rainfall in southeast Africa has become heavier and more likely to occur during cyclones because of climate change.
The 33-page study was conducted by a total of 22 researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Madagascar, Mozambique, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the U.S.
Several tropical storms that destroyed parts of Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique this year were analysed by the World Weather Attribution group, which determined that the storms were made worse by the increase in global temperatures.
The analysis showed that In just six weeks between January and March, the region saw a record three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms make landfall. It also showed that heavy rains, storm surges and floods left more than 230 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands across the region.
Read also: Drought: UN warns 350,000 Somali children at risk of death
The report showed that countries remain vulnerable to devastating weather this year, with cyclone season expected to end in May.
The climate scientists, who undertook the analysis, used what is described as established peer-reviewed methods, including weather observations and computer simulations, to model scenarios using both preindustrial global temperatures and today’s – which is approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer.
According to them, the difference between the models determined the impact of human-caused global warming.
One of those who partook in the study, Sarah Kew, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said that they investigated the influence of climate change using 34 prediction models but data gaps made it difficult to determine the full impact of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
“While our analysis clearly shows that climate change made the storms more damaging, our ability to establish precisely by how much was hampered by inconsistent data and lack of weather observations,” said Kew. “This would also help to improve forecasts of extreme weather events and their impacts.”
The study which was constrained by a lack of weather stations with suitable data, In both Madagascar and Malawi, showed that of the 23 weather stations in the affected regions of Mozambique, only four had complete records dating back to 1981.
Story was adapted from Insurance Journal.
